Battle For 2023: Tinubu Vs Jonathan And The Choices Open To Nigerians As APC Grinds Harder By Osigwe Omo-Ikirodah

"Life is not too charitable. What you get from life is what you give to it. If your whole life is characterised by excuses on why you could not do anything, the outcome of your life will also be full of excuses.- Chief Owen Obaseki.

Today is September 8th 2021 and guess what? The general elections will be held in Nigeria on 23 February 2023 to elect the President, Vice President, House of Representatives and Senate.

That gives us 533 days left to a major event that would decide the fate of over 200 million Nigerians. As against expectations and reality, Nigerians by now ought to be actively involved in who governs them right from the Local Govt Councils to the Presidency.

Complaining bitterly without a corresponding effort to participate in the process is merely wishful thinking and a waste of time and intellectual resources. Like the above quote depicts, excuses never gets you results. If you are sick and tired of the present leadership of Nigeria then what stops you from being an alternative? These same leaders that we adore and look up to like demi-gods never had the prerogative or privilege majority of Nigerians have yet they have been in control of power for ages.

Many are not as learned as you complaining, neither were they as rich as you were before they forayed into politics, in fact, many politicians entered politics due to poverty, so what stops you from strategizing on who governs you? 

In life who really cares about the pains and joy the next-door neighbour passes through? So it is with politics these leaders really care less if you decide to be active or not, they know what to do to grab power and funny enough the Nigerian always complaining upadan knows what to do too to get power, but unfortunately fabricates excuses and refuses to act while the politician goes ahead and acts without procrastinating.

Let me hit the nail squarely on the head, from all political calculations it is obvious that the APC presidential ticket has been zoned to the South while the PDP has zoned the presidency to the North.

Now take note again that Buhari's presidency In 2015 was the famous revolution that changed the status quo, it was the first time a sitting president was dethroned and in 2023 Buhari would be no more which brings to the fore heavy politicking by political gladiators.

Two major contenders are up for the battle ahead in securing the APC presidential ticket if the kingmakers in APC have their way. (which they ought to have their way because they own the party, not you that is not even a card-carrying member of a political party).

Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu and Ex-president Goodluck Jonathan are the two front runners shaking the foundation of the APC. The intriguing aspect is that these two aspirants would never challenge themselves face to face in a contest as most of the battle would be fought behind the scene. 

Their political clout and personality are too huge for any of these two characters to declare to vie for the presidency without full assurance of getting the presidential ticket of the party from the necessary quarters.

So herein lies the battle, the next few months would see high political alignment and realignment from the camp of these two strong contenders. But before we witness the drama and horse-trading here is a glimpse of their likely chances within the APC to clinch the presidential ticket.

Please take note, these two choices have nothing to do with the electorate as it is purely a party affair.

Goodluck Ebele Jonathan 

His Strength.

He enjoys the support of the PDP crossovers in the APC.

He has a good selling point that appeals to a "sensed" Northern cabal because of his eligibility to serve for only fours years. 

This same "sensed" northern cabal is comfortable with Jonathan just like they were comfortable with Obasanjo then, probably because of the same reasons which are not farfetched, both men handed over to the North when there were options opened to play the script otherwise.

Jonathan looks calm and easygoing and not seen as a table shaker.

Jonathan is seen as the joker to checkmate the rising profile of Tinubu.

His weaknesses.

All his advantages mentioned above can be his albatross and can be counterproductive if not carefully played.

Jonathan does not seek power and may not be fully prepared for the battle ahead.

He is not a member of the APC and as such may not enjoy a large base across the board. 

As earlier stated, some of his advantages are a minus, the South needs eight years of uninterrupted power a GEJ candidacy is a hurdle to that.

If peradventure Tinubu refuses to throw his support for Jonathan then that ends the story for Goodluck Jonathan.

Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu

His Strength 

He seems to have prepared for this day.

Tinubu's support base across APC party leaders is a bomb, he can never be shut out when he comes calling, NEVER.

Tinubu happens to be the most organized politician presently, If you carefully look at the political arithmetic you would agree that  Tinubu comes first while closely followed behind by Atiku in terms of political organisation. He is too sagacious to miss a target if he ever ventures into the race.

His weakness.

In every advantage, there is the equivalent of a setback if not well played, this also applies to Tinubu.

Tinubu does not look like a stooge no matter how the opposition would want to paint Tinubu as a slave to the Northern Cabal everybody knows deep down that Tinubu can never be a yes man to anybody, sorry to say this, but it is written all over the face of the political gladiator.

What are the choices open for Nigerians?

Funny enough the PDP presently has only Atiku on its presidential card, the vice presidency is the major slot that is vacant in the party.

So what are the stakes?

Nigerians should look beyond the uncertainties in politics and start foraying into governance, the elite controls the game in unity, while the masses groan in pain because they are politically lazy and ass lickers.

No president tells their ministers to steal or commit fraud, a minister or commissioner that steals does so at his or her own volition, not on the express orders of the President or Governor. Nigerians can make changes wherever they find themselves and we have so many examples of Nigerians that have excelled even when perceived to serve under corrupt governments, eg the late Prof  Dora Nkem Akunyili served meritoriously to the admiration of all.

Then for those that are saying Nigeria would break up before 2023, you should cover your heads in shame as Nigeria dey kampe. Where is Sunday Igboho, where is Nnamdi Kanu? The more you disenfranchise yourself by not participating in the electoral system the more the elites coast home to victory. It is simple logic. 

Let me conclude this with a statement credited to Sule Lamido on the break up of Nigeria.

“They don’t have the capacity to unite(the masses) because they are burdened by poverty. We have taken away from them their dignity, their self-esteem, their pride and self-worth so that they cannot even organize for the break-up of the country.
“Up there, we (elites) unite. We will never allow Nigeria to break because once it breaks, we will lose. But the common man loses nothing. What is he losing? He is already in hell; he cannot lose anything more than this hell.”

Osigwe Omo-Ikirodah is the Principal of Bush Radio Academy.

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